ICE Brent slips below $71/b, still supported by Gonu and Iraq
 
London (Platts)--7Jun2007
Global crude futures Thursday largely held on to gains made during a
turbulent trading session the previous day although ICE Brent slipped below
$71/barrel.

     Political concerns in the Middle East, combined with supply fears
stemming from cyclone Gonu as well as a tightening prompt market for Brent all
continued to support prices, sources said.

     At 1128 London time (1028 GMT), front month July ICE Brent futures was
down 11 cents at $70.89/b, with the July/August spread at parity. It slipped
into backwardation earlier in the trading day on the back of ongoing supply
fears from Nigeria and Gonu as well as speculative inflows into the ICE Brent
market, market players said.

     "There has been speculative money getting into Brent, especially on the
prompt month. These seem to be mainly European and American hedge funds," said
Ken Hasegawa, a manager at commodities futures broker Himawari CX in Tokyo.

     July WTI on NYMEX and ICE were up 18 cents at $66.14/b, recovering from a
bearish set of US inventory data published Wednesday by the US Energy
Information Administration and the American Petroleum Institute.

     US inventory data published by the EIA showed a 100,000-barrel build in
crude inventories, less than the 550,000 barrel increase analysts polled by
Platts were expecting.

     However, gasoline stocks increased by 3.5 million barrels, while
distillate stocks rose 1.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization dropped 1.6%
to 89.6%, according to the EIA, against expectations for an increase of 0.6%.

     "The US stats were bearish, however crude only lost about 20-30 cents
before bouncing back again. Supply fears stemming from cyclone Gonu and rumors
about a Turkish incursion in northern Iraq raised the risk premium on crude
again," a London-based trader said.

     "However, I think that we will see some sell-off and profit-taking today,
with the risk premium likely to shrink again...Gonu is losing its significance
and as long as no fresh bullish news come from Iraq, prices might lose some
ground," the trader added.

     Tropical cyclone Gonu continued to weaken early Thursday on its way to
the southern coast of Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, the US Department of
Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported.

     The UAE port of Fujairah also reopened Thursday morning and allowed
bunkering operations as well as ship-to-ship deliveries to resume, a port
official said Thursday.

     The August DME Oman contract was trading at $66.38/b, up 21 cents, while
August ICE Dubai futures were pegged at $66.20/b, up 31 cents.

     Among product futures, June ICE gasoil gained $2.25 to $613.75/mt.In the
US, July NYMEX heating oil and RBOB futures strengthened by 0.52 cents and
1.01 cents to $1.9770/gallon and $2.2005/gallon, respectively.

--Verena Peternell, verena_peternell@platts.com