Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 04 0023 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 960 (S09E50) produced three M-class flares; an M2.4 at 03/0159 UTC, an M7.0 at 03/0212 UTC, and an M4.5 with an associated 330 sfu Tenflare at 03/0641UTC. Region 960 also produced a C5.3 flare at 03/0928 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (speed 522 km/s). This event is not expected to be geoeffective. Region 960 has been classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with an area of approximately 540 millionths.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels with a chance for an X-class flare from Region 960.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 370 km/s to 500 km/s from 03/1200 UTC until 03/2100 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 04 June. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 05 and 06 June. Based on the potential for significant flare activity from Region 960, there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/15/15
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 087
Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 03 Jun 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 010/010-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales