IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was at high levels. Region 960 (S08E38) produced an M8.9/3b flare at 04/0513 UTC with an associated 130 sfu Tenflare. There is some decay in area of the central and trailing spots of this region, however it remains a complex beta gamma delta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels with a chance for an X-flare from Region 960.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 04/1500 UTC and 04/1800 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Based on the potential for significant flare activity from Region 960, there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 086
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 008/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
 

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