IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 960 (S05W85) produced A B4 flare at 13/1347Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from Region 960.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. An apparent solar sector boundary crossing occurred at 13/1800Z. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 310 km/s to 420 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 14-15 June, with isolated minor storm periods possible at high latitudes, due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 16 June.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 071
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 010/015-010/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
 

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NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales