Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 19 June. Expect unsettled to active conditions, with minor storm periods possible, on 20-21 June as a recurrent coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position, III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 067
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 008/010-012/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/30
Minor storm 10/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/35
Minor storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/10/15

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales