Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active for the forecast period, 22 - 24 June.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 066
Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 068/068/070
90 Day Mean 21 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 010/015-010/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 45/45/35
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales