HOUSTON, Texas, US, May 30, 2007.
The profound promise of renewable energy can be realised if the United States aggressively seeks a global sustainable energy economy, according to the director of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
Energy solutions are enormously challenging and must address a number of imperatives, Dan Arvizu told a meeting of engineers. Past investments have yielded impressive cost reductions, but the technology innovation challenges for the next generation require that wind turbines improve energy capture by 30% and decrease costs by 25%, while solar systems improve performance through new materials, lower cost manufacturing processes and nanostructures.
National goals in the U.S. want biofuels to reduce gasoline usage by 20% in ten years, wind to supply 20% of total energy by 2030, and solar to be market competitive by 2015 for PV and by 2020 for concentrating solar. The challenge goal is for 25% of the country’s energy to come from renewables by 2025, he explained.
Renewables currently supply 1 GW of total energy and “today’s optimistic forecast for renewable energy” will raise that level to 1 TW by 2050, but advanced technologies must supply another 19 TW by that time. The current energy marketplace “does not appropriately ‘value’ certain public objectives or social goods” and results in “price volatility, serious environmental impacts and under-investment in energy innovation.”
Energy R&D investments are declining and reflect the movement of the price of world oil, but global markets for wind and solar PV are growing rapidly. North America will fall behind the rest of the world (excluding Europe) in wind capacity by 2010, while global shipments of PV more than doubled between 2003 and 2005.
Money is flowing into renewables, and last years investment in wind was US$31.2 billion, with another $14.8 billion for biofuels, $11.7 billion for solar and $7.6 billion for biomass and waste. Investments since 1980 have dropped the price for biomass by 50%, 70% for geothermal and 90% for wind, solar thermal and solar PV.
“The promise of renewable energy is profound and can be realised if we aggressively seek a global sustainable energy economy, accelerate investment in technology innovation and acknowledge and mitigate the carbon challenge with the necessary policies,” he concludes. “It is a matter of national will and leadership.”
