US Weather Commentary

New York City and the Northeast is experiencing their hottest 8-Day stretch ever in the month of May. As New York City breaks into the 90's, it will conclude an 8-day max temperature stretch tying the hottest such period recorded in the month of May (set in 1991). Not only did this place a exclamation point on the issue we advised a month ago of "Summer rearing its head in a big way no sooner but no later than the final week of May 2007", but this was also the same time-period that was predicted to be much cooler (average max temps in the 70's) by computer models and short-term forecasts. The large error bars and low skill scores between short-term forecasts and observed reality is going to be a theme routinely repeated throughout the 2007 Summer and for several regions of the Nation.

Expect large revisions in NWS Outlooks and others through the weekend. After calling for a cool-down in the Northeast this week (during one of the hottest May periods in history) computer models are still slow on the ball, now underestimating temperatures deeper into June as well. NWS outlooks and short-term forecasters will probably catch on soon however and flip their very bearish/cool forecasts for the populated Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast to indications & advisories of pending June warmth and perhaps a fresh June heat wave on the horizon. Of course, June was always supposed to be warm, but this back-peddling "outlook roller-coaster" is something you'll have to get accustomed to this Summer as the climate forces at work this year (2007) are too complex for most information sources to get their hands around consistently.

Disturbance near mouth of Gulf of Mexico might become (Sub)/Tropical Storm BARRY within 96 hours. The Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't even officially commence until June 1st (tomorrow) and we're already talking about the potential for the 2nd Named Storm of the year, but such is the life amidst a multi-decadal active Hurricane Cycle. Located just East of Cancun (near the mouth of the Gulf of Mexico/Yucatan Channel), wind shear remains substantial and an inhibiting obstacle, but it is situated atop warm waters and the atmospheric environment could gradually improve over the next few days. Steering currents should lead the system to technically and eventually "enter the Gulf", but this should be a relatively short course towards the Florida Peninsula. If T.D. # 2/BARRY forms it would actually be beneficial in bringing plentiful tropical rains to the drought-stricken State over the weekend, but Western Caribbean/Southeastern Gulf storms often take on erratic motions and intensity spurts, so caution is warranted. As always, we will be the first to advise you if and when the National Hurricane Center ever decides to officially classify this system, and of course keep you abreast of path & strength expectations.

Yesterday, CSU issued their 2nd Hurricane Season Forecast of 2007 ["June Update"] which garnered media, public and industry attention. Below was their actual forecast, along side our best estimates of the key numbers they would declare (which we shared yesterday), and historical averages:

1950-2000 Average:Our Anticipated CSU Forecast [05/31]: Actual CSU Forecast [05/31]:

Named Storms  9.6 17 17

Hurricanes  5.9 9 9

Major Hurricanes  2.3 5 5

Note: while Sub-Tropical Storms are now officially named by the National Hurricane Center (i.e. Andrea earlier this month), CSU elects not to include Sub-Tropical Storms in their forecast totals.

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