Calgary (Platts)--25Jun2007

Western Canada's crude exports to the US are expected to rise by about
94% between now and 2015, according to a study published by the Canadian
Association of Petroleum Producers Monday.
     CAPP's study notes that Western Canadian crude oil exports to the US
would rise from an average of 1.6 million b/d in 2006 to about 3.1 million
b/d. This jump in exports is largely due to increased crude production in
Western Canada and the increase in pipeline capacity.
     Western Canada's crude production, including both conventional and oil
sands, amounted to about 2.3 million b/d in 2006 with oil sands making up
about 48%. By 2015, crude production from Western Canada is expected to rise
to 3.9 million b/d with oil sands making 87% of the total output. 
     Most of Western Canada's exports to the US will head to the Midwest as it
does currently. The bulk of Western Canadian crude exports in 2015 would be
destined to Northern PADD II, where exports would rise by 812,000 b/d to 1.820
million b/d; to Eastern PADD II up 586,000 b/d to 670,000 b/d and to
Washington state by 527,000 b/d to 624,000 b/d, said the CAPP report.
     While exports rise, Canadian refiners intake of Western Canadian crudes
will also rise, noted the CAPP report. By 2015, Ontario's consumption of
Western Canadian crudes would rise by 265,000 b/d to about 470,000 b/d. Part
of this increase is Shell's plans to build a new 200,000 b/d refinery near
Sarnia, Ontario.
     Demand from Alberta's refiners for local crudes are also on the rise. By
2015, Alberta refineries consumption of local crudes would rise by 64,000 b/d
to 624,000 b/d, the report noted. 
--Esa Ramasamy, esa_ramasamy@platts.com