Ethanol Picks up the Pace - March 14, 2007
I am someone who is environmentally aware and I do what
I can in my own way to minimize my environmental
footprint. But I see ethanol as a red herring that a lot
of folks won't flock to under the currently proposed
schemes.
Why? Consumers are not going to pay more -- or even the
same price -- for an inferior product. Remember your basic
determinants of demand from Econ 101? These are -- income,
tastes, and the cost of alternatives.
The calculus of ethanol is that it just plain costs
more, a lot more in fact, in terms of how we use motor
fuels. My vehicle gets about 20 MPG on premium fuel, and
it has to have the premium -- I have experimented with
that. So let's just say that I spent $2.80 a gallon for
gas -- yield a running cost of $.14 per mile for fuel. OK
so far?
When I switch to an ethanol blend and you know what
happens? While it is not supposed to, the mileage on the
car goes down by about 10-15%, as the specific energy
content of ethanol is lower than gasoline. So where does
my cost per mile go -- straight up!! I now end up spending
about $.156 per mile, an 11% increase. Or as I see it, I
end up spending the equivalent of $3.11 per gallon in to
use ethanol on a cost per mile-normalized basis.
Why would I want to do that? I will become a dedicated
ethanol user as soon as it is 10% cheaper than standard
gasoline, that is, when it is an economically neutral
proposition.
I am not the only person who has figured this out,
which is why the government has to mandate ethanol use and
subsidize it in order to get it into the market.
Burk Kalweit
The Alliance for Science and Technology Research in
America
Great boost for Ethanol and the benefits, that are not
quite realized. You state that with Government support
Ethanol could be better and cheaper. There is a reality
factor here, and that is the price should not be quoted
per gallon, but rather by BTU content per gallon. Gasoline
per gallon has a higher BTU content, so the comparison is
not an "apples to apples" basis. This means you will
consume more Ethanol to cover the equivalent gasoline
mileage.
Septimus van der Linden
If we are to reach the goals that bio-fuels could
provide 30 percent of the global energy demand by 2030 of
oil giant BP, upgrading the infrastructure is certain. I
continue to hear the primary reason for developing
biofuels is to gain independence from foreign oil from
geopolitically unstable regions. While that goal may be in
the horizon, one of the primary building blocks in the
process of corn production (nitrogen fertilizer) is moving
the opposite direction. Consider the following
information:
1) The United States Government has invested
substantial resources and time into developing alternative
sources of energy based in the U.S. In order to facilitate
changes in our supply and demand portfolio, the United
States Government created significant tax incentives for
the biofuels (ethanol) industry.
2) One of the primary policy goals is to be energy
independent from the Middle East, geopolitically one of
the most unstable regions in the world.
3) Doane's Agricultural Report Planting Survey
estimates the ethanol industry could put into production
an additional 11.5 million acres of corn in the 2006 --
2007 production years. The production of corn consumes 46%
of the total nitrogen consumed in agricultural production.
Depending on the specific nitrogen, 70 -- 85 percent of
the cash operating cost in the production of nitrogen
fertilizer is from the cost of natural gas.
4) Since 1999, exploding energy prices reduced the
North American ammonia production capacity from 18 million
tons to 9.25 million tons in 2006 -- this gap in
production is now filled with 9.5 million tons on nitrogen
imports representing 50% of our domestic fertilizer
supply.
5) Industry estimates by 2010, that 70% or our Urea
fertilizer will be imported from the Middle East. Since
2000, urea prices more than tripled from $100 per ton to a
current cost of $370 per ton Fob NOLA.
One must question the common wisdom and ask, "Are we
becoming energy independent from one of the most
geopolitically unstable regions in the world?" Unless you
are blinded by a sand storm, the answer is no! What would
a disruption in fertilizer supply have on our domestic
food and fiber production? Would a disruption in
fertilizer supply have an effect on our biofuels
production? Could instability in Qatar and Saudi Arabia,
two of our primary import countries, significantly
compress nitrogen imports?
Nitrogen fertilizers are essential in the production of
food and fiber. Our domestic policy for the safety and
welfare of our citizens should not be dependant on one of
the most geopolitically unstable regions in the world for
one of the most basic building blocks in production
agriculture. The U.S. government may need to consider long
term tax incentives for rebuilding our domestic fertilizer
industry in order to assure our citizens continue to have
the least expensive per capita, safest, most abundant food
supply in the world, and provide the necessary
infrastructure to produce corn for ethanol production.
Would the common citizen approve of a situation where
our 70% genetically modified seeds to produce food and
fiber were produced in the country of Iran and imported
into the U.S. for production agriculture?
Toby M. Hlavinka
I believe one of the various methods available to
reduce the USA's dependence on foreign oil is definitely
Ethanol produced locally in the USA. Ethanol is of course
not the only stop gap measure needed to alleviate our
dependence on foreign oil. If the US government will stop
paying farmers subsidies for not growing crops there might
be enough corn and other crops grown for animal feed,
human consumption as well as for Ethanol production. Corn
is obviously not the only organic crop that Ethanol can be
produced from. More R&D into alternate sources for Ethanol
production might also prove helpful and take some pressure
of corn production.
In addition, there are alternates that can be employed
by both the government and the consumer. Government
subsidies for development of alternate energy sources as
well as tax credits to consumers for using alternate
energy. Since the bulk of the oil consumption is by the
transportation sector (our cars and trucks) more attention
needs to be made to reduce gasoline and diesel fuel
consumption. We are still driving too many large SUV's and
pick-up trucks with gasoline mileage at best between 15
and 20 mpg. The American mindset for automobiles is larger
is better. Well that is not very good when you are trying
to conserve gasoline consumption. Overall there needs to
be less large SUV's and pick-up trucks on the roads and
more smaller fuel efficient automobiles on the roads.
Bumper height for ALL vehicles must be enforced. When was
the last time you saw a large pick-up truck raised up 12
inches above normal with the bumper at least 36 inches
above the ground driving toward you?? That kind of
modification of vehicles must be stopped in order for
small car drivers to at least feel some security driving
around with large SUV and pick-up trucks which are not
modified.
Electric cars would become an acceptable alternate if
technology would advance allowing for achievement of 200
to even 400 miles before an overnight recharge is
necessary. Battery technology is improving but still has a
way to go in order to achieve reduction of battery weight
(weight relates directly to horsepower needed to drive the
vehicle), increase in battery life and reduction of
initial and replacement cost for battery pack for an
automobile. Alternatively the hydrogen vehicle could be
commercialized if there were enough consumer interest.
Manufacturers are not generally willing to embark on an
exploratory R&D program to build a commercial hydrogen
vehicle when there is realistically no infrastructure in
place to service hydrogen powered vehicles. There needs to
be in place upon commercialization of the hydrogen car at
lease a limited number of fuel stations and repair
stations so the consumer can use the vehicle.
Dave Pittinger
Indian River Bay Associates, LLC
In your editorial, you state:
"Critics also note that in 2005, 13 percent of the U.S.
corn crop was used to make ethanol, which has created
shortages and pushed up the price of every product that
uses corn as a feedstock."
Please note, those critics above don't do a lot of
research into their erroneous comments. I have personally
done my own research and write the following:
The National Corn Growers Association's website
contains a report titled "US Corn Growers: Producing Food
AND Fuel" published in November of 2006. The report
contains bar graphs, tables and charts made by the United
States Department of Agriculture (USDA) that illustrate
increased corn demands by ethanol will be met by
exceedingly higher corn yields per acre each year. It
graphs year-by-year, export and livestock feed corn uses
remaining flat since 1997. It anticipates farmers will
grow more corn in place of other crops.
The Food and Fuel report includes USDA pie charts that
illustrate the percent of corn ingredients relative to
farm production costs for chicken and pork. The corn diet
portion represents less than 20% of farm production costs
for chicken. Similarly, corn costs are less than 5% of
total farm production costs for feeder pigs. The USDA
further illustrates year-by-year since 1995, pork farm
production costs averages are only 30% of pork retail
prices. In other words, corn ingredient costs impact
little when compared to retail prices for pork and
chicken.
Further, an important co-product from ethanol
production is DDGS or dried distillers grain and solubles.
This by-product is fiber, protein and fat left from corn
after the starch is used for ethanol production. DDGS can
supplement livestock feed and costs half that of bushel
corn.
Aside from pork, beef and poultry sold in stores, the
financial impact of dent corn in products is so small it
hardly measures. For example, corn used in corn flakes or
high fructose syrup for soda amounts to less than 5% of
the retail price of soda or corn flakes. The cost of corn
inside corn flakes is about 10 cents. If corn bushel
prices double again, the corn cost inside the box goes up
say 15 or 20 cents. I think consumers can pay a dime more
for a $3.50 box of cereal.
Sweet corn for summer produce, frozen food and canned
corn, grows on approximately 130,000 acres across the USA.
Compare that to 71 million acres for field or dent corn
that only ethanol uses, and no sweet corn shortage is
projected.
Ross Draper
Application Engineer
Fluid Process Equipment
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