Hurricane Lessons, Comments and Outlook

10.)   An anti-climatic benchmark was set in the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season (which produced record numbers of Named Tropical Storms [28], Hurricanes [15], and Category-5 Hurricanes [4]), and conversely 2006 created a dangerous sense of complacency when only an (average) 10 Tropical Storms developed. These 2 large pendulum swings in Tropical Storm production should not obscure the bigger picture of the active multi-decadal cycle we are in the midst of:  9 of the past 11 Seasons have yielded Above Normal Tropical Storms (with only 1997 being Below Normal).

9.)  Last year it was quite remarkable that even an average number of 10 Tropical Storms were able to form in light of 2 powerful inhibitory factors that evolved.  Firstly, a weak El Niño event emerged much more rapidly during the 2006 Summer than had been anticipated, creating disruptive shear patterns and essentially shutting down the back-half of the Season.  Secondly, the perennial Saharan Air Layer (or SAL) was substantially more robust and persistent than usual, essentially "choking" numerous potential Tropical waves before they could organize, from August-October.  If you excluded these 2 variables from the equation (which should be the case in 2007), we potentially could have seen close to double the number of Tropical Storms and/or Hurricanes.

8.)   In 2005 Hurricane Emily was the strongest Atlantic Hurricane ever prior to August [160 mph], with Dennis was the 2nd strongest ever prior to August [150 mph].  This cautions that intense Tropical Storms can be a legitimate threat in the early stages of the Summer.  Furthermore, Hurricane #1 in March 1908 [100 mph], Hurricane Abel in May 1951 [115 mph], Hurricane Lenny in November 1999 [155 mph], and Hurricane #2 in December 1925 [100 mph], demonstrate that legitimate Hurricanes can and do form on the periphery of the official "Hurricane Season".

7.)   Having passed the 18-month Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, let us revisit the storm details, lest we forget critical lessons of why flood damage was so catastrophic.  As Katrina passed Southeast of New Orleans, her E/NE winds piled up the waters of Lake Borgne, amplified the storm surge (converging with the waters of the Intracoastal Waterway and the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet), overwhelming the Industrial Canal and surrounding neighborhoods. As Katrina passed Northeast of New Orleans, her N/NE winds piled up the waters of Lake Pontchartrain overwhelming the outfall/drainage canals and surrounding neighborhoods.  This is why many of the homes & structures in Mississippi and Alabama were absolutely leveled directly by Katrina's strongest quadrant (but with minimal flooding), and why Louisiana endured historic flooding (but with less structural destruction).

6.)   Louisiana has lost 1,900 square miles of (essential buffering) wetlands and bayou forest from 1937-2000 alone, due to coastal development (including urban subsidence and river channeling), and subsequent erosion.  Similar huge losses of these natural silt and vegetative buffers have taken place during the past Century from Texas to Maine.  Building, living in, and manipulating coastal areas satisfies the needs of industry, commerce and residents, but exponentially increases the vulnerability of these regions to storm devastation.

5.)   You might be surprised to learn that not a single Hurricane made landfall the past 2 years as a Category 4 or Category 5 storm; Charlie [CAT 4] in 2004 was the last, and then you have to go back to Andrew [CAT 5] in 1992 before that.  Thus, things could have been worse the past 2 Seasons, on isolated bases, believe it or not.  Furthermore, it should be noted that it has literally been decades since a direct Hurricane hit has been made on major hubs such as Houston/Galveston, with only 3 Hurricanes of Category 4/5 striking anywhere from Brownsville Texas to Tampa Florida since 1950.  Due to atmospheric parameters and SST projections, our research concludes that there are above-average odds that a Hurricane will make landfall in the U.S. as a Category 4/5, in 2007.

4.)   Mostly due to geography, but not to be overlooked, is the fact that no Hurricane since 1950 has ever directly struck from the upper Outer Banks of North Carolina to New York City (a Mid-Atlantic coastal zone that represents Scores of Millions of people). The region has been impacted by storms traversing up the Atlantic States (i.e. Floyd), but time will eventually run out on avoiding direct primary landfalls.  Due to steering mechanisms and SST projections, our research concludes that there are high odds that at least 1 Hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast, in 2007.

- We recently completed a compendium of historical New York Coast Hurricanes which you might find of interest:

http://www.weather2000.com/NY_Hurricanes.html

3.)   From Loop Current, Thermocline and Oceanic Heat Content projections, our research concludes that there are slight odds that an Atlantic Hurricane could even achieve the strength of 191-200 mph sustained winds (never before officially observed in a tropical storm on Planet Earth) during the 2007 Season.  The intensity record of 882 mb (established by Wilma in 2005) could also be challenged in 2007.

2.)  Our research has detected a recent trend of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone [ITCZ] shifting further southward toward the Equator.  Besides now placing traditional "Hurricane-Proof" islands like Aruba, Bonaire and Curaço in Tropical Storms' line-of-sight, along with several Central American Countries, this also allows for the turning radius of low-latitude storms to intersect the GOM (like Dennis, Emily and Wilma in 2005).

1.)  Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies [SSTA's] are presently warmer-than-normal across the sub-basins of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, Sargasso Sea (marginal), and Eastern Atlantic. Combined with the pending development of moderate La Niña conditions this Summer (to be re-evaluated periodically over the next 90 days), wind-sheer effects should be further reduced, establishing both an Oceanographic and Atmospheric environment that should be very conducive for Tropical development during the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

OTHER POPULAR HURRICANE OUTLOOKS:

Undoubtedly there will be fanatics this Spring that will make myopic 4-month predictions such as "A Category 3 Hurricane will strike Savannah Georgia precisely on September 18th!", which only hurts the science. There is however quality tropical research and statistical predictions emanating from a variety of legitimate scientific entities.  Over the past decade, the most popular and widely heralded of these "Hurricane Forecasts", has come out of Colorado State University [CSU], more commonly coined simply "Dr. Gray's Forecast" (referring to Professor Emeritus Dr. William Gray who headed the Tropical Team).  Dr. Gray has partially moved on to other climate projects, and now Dr. Klotzbach heads the team responsible for what is still the benchmark of Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks. 

On Tuesday April 3rd, they are scheduled to issue their first Hurricane Season Forecast of 2007 which will undoubtedly garner media, public and industry attention. Correspondingly, on Wednesday March 28th, we will issue our own "Forecasting the Forecasters" report, to help you anticipate what their Hurricane predictions & hi-lights will likely be the following week.

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