CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts, US, February 28, 2007.
The use of renewable energy in the United States is “a matter of national will and leadership,” according to the head of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
The promise of renewable energy is “profound” and can be realized if the U.S. “aggressively seeks a global sustainable energy economy; acknowledges and mitigates the carbon challenge with the necessary policies; and accelerates investment in technology innovation,” NREL director Dan Arvizu told the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. Energy solutions are enormously challenging and must address the imperatives of energy security, economic productivity and environmental impact.
From 1 GW of renewable energy capacity in 2000, the current “optimistic forecast” for renewables is 1,000 GW by 2050, he explained, although global energy demand will be 20,000 GW by that time, and advanced technologies must help fill the gap. In 2002, renewables provided 14% of world energy and that share will remain constant to 2030, with biomass dropping from 11% to 10%, hydro remaining constant at 2% and ‘other renewables’ doubling from 1% to 2% of global market share. In the United States, renewables will grow from 6% in 2004 to 7% in 2030, he explained.
“There is no single or simple answer” to growing demand, and technology-based solutions must include renewables as well as energy efficiency, non-polluting transportation fuels, separation and sequestration of CO2, next generation nuclear energy technologies, and a transition to distributed energy systems coupled with pollution-free energy carriers, he added. Resources for solar, wind, biomass and geothermal are plentiful, and their development has resulted in “impressive cost reductions” of 90% for wind, solar PV and solar thermal since 1980, 75% for geothermal and 50% for biomass.
“Consistent policies are required for long-term market growth” to meet national goals of 30% of gasoline from biofuels by 2030, 20% of electricity from wind by 2030, and for solar PV to be market competitive by 2015. There will be significant infrastructure investments required to meet these goals, quoting a recent estimate that US$28.5 billion could be required over 23 years to facilitate 30% from biofuels by 2030.
Technology innovation challenges for wind require that next-generation turbines improve energy capture by 30% and decrease capital costs by 25%, while solar PV improves its performance through process improvements, better materials and concentration.
The U.S. wind industry had installed 11,603 MW of turbines by the end of 2006 and can generate electricity for 6 to 9¢/kWh at good wind sites without the production credit, but the Department of Energy has set a goal of 3.6¢/kWh for onshore turbines at low wind sites by 2012 and 7¢/kWh for offshore turbines in shallow water by 2014.
