Issued: 2007 Mar 15 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (16 - 18 March).

III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 15 Mar 069

Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 15 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 009/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 005/008-005/005-003/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales