Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2007 Mar 19 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 19 Mar 070

Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 070/070/075

90 Day Mean 19 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 001/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales