Issued: 2007 Mar 22 2221 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next two days (23-24 March).

Expect quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods on 25 March due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

Isolated minor storm periods are possible at high latitudes as the coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 22 Mar 073

Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 22 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 001/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 005/005-005/005-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/20

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/25

Minor storm 05/05/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales