WASHINGTON, DC, US, March 7, 2007.
The U.S. Department of Energy has downgraded its estimate for green power output to 2030.
Total power generation from renewables (including CHP/cogeneration and end-use generation) will grow by 1.5% per year under the reference case, from 357 billion kWh in 2005 to 519 billion kWh in 2030, according to the 2007 release of the Annual Energy Outlook. “The projection for renewable generation in the AEO2007 reference case is lower than the comparable AEO2006 projection because new, less positive cost and performance characteristics are assumed for several renewable technologies.”
DOE’s Energy Information Administration, in preparing projections for the report, evaluated a “wide range of trends and issues that could have major implications for U.S. energy markets between today and 2030.” The reference case assumes that current policies affecting the energy sector remain unchanged throughout the projection period and notes that “some possible policy changes - notably, the adoption of policies to limit or reduce GHG emissions - could change the reference case projections significantly.”
Despite rapid growth expected for biofuels and other non-hydroelectric renewable energy sources and the expectation that orders will be placed for new nuclear reactors for the first time in more than 25 years, “oil, coal and natural gas still are projected to provide roughly the same 86% share of the total U.S. primary energy supply in 2030 that they did in 2005 (assuming no changes in existing laws and regulations),” the report explains. “The expected rapid growth in the use of biofuels and other non-hydropower renewable energy sources begins from a very low current share of total energy use; hydroelectric power production, which accounts for the bulk of current renewable electricity supply, is nearly stagnant; and the share of total electricity supplied from nuclear power falls despite the projected new plant builds, which more than offset retirements, because the overall market for electricity continues to expand rapidly in the projection.”
Total consumption of marketed renewable fuels (including ethanol for gasoline, of which 1.2 quadrillion Btu in 2030 is included with liquid fuels consumption) is projected to grow from 6.5 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 10.2 quadrillion Btu in 2030. “The robust growth is a result of state renewable portfolio standard programs, mandates and goals for renewable electricity generation; technological advances; high petroleum and natural gas prices; and federal tax credits, including those in EPACT2005.”
Ethanol consumption will grow more rapidly in the 2007 outlook than projected in the 2006 reference case, but total consumption of marketed renewable fuels in 2030 is somewhat lower in this year’s reference case, with slower growth in geothermal generation of electric power (0.5 quadrillion Btu in the AEO2007 reference case compared with 1.5 quadrillion Btu in AEO2006 in 2030), based on a reevaluation of historical progress in installing new geothermal capacity and the availability of resources. In the AEO2007 reference case, more than 50% of the projected demand for renewables is for grid-connected electricity generation, including CHP, and the rest is for dispersed heating and cooling, industrial uses, and fuel blending.
The 2007 reference case projects 21% more ethanol consumption in 2030 than projected in the 2006 reference case (14.6 billion gallons compared with 12.1 billion gallons). As corn and biofeedstock supplies increase, and with price advantages over other motor gasoline blending components, ethanol consumption grows from 4.0 billion gallons in 2005 to 11.2 billion gallons in 2012 in the 2007 reference case, which “far exceeds the required 7.5 billion gallons in the Renewable Fuel Standard that was enacted as part of EPACT2005.”
Ethanol supply in AEO2007 is dominated by corn-based production, as a result of its cost advantages and eligibility for tax credits. Production of cellulosic ethanol is projected to total only 0.3 billion gallons in 2030, and ethanol imports are projected to total 0.8 billion gallons, a level consistent with the AEO2006 reference case projection.
In the AEO2007 reference case, the coal share of total energy use increases from 23% in 2005 to 26% in 2030, while natural gas falls from 23% to 20% and the share for liquids remains at 40%. The combined share of renewables and nuclear remains stable from 2005 to 2030 at 14%.
Excluding hydropower and biomass, renewables provided 0.76 quads of U.S. primary energy in 2005, and will grow to 1.18 in 2010 (down from 1.27 in last years outlook) and to 1.33 in 2020 (down from 1.92) and 1.44 in 2030 (down from 2.61 quads predicted last year).
