April 27, 2007 — By CICERO OSLO, Norway — One of the themes at a recent climate conference arranged by the Norwegian research program RENERGI was how we can achieve an effective international climate agreement. Professor in political science Jon Hovi at the University of Oslo and CICERO has studied this topic for years. He argues that although the international community faces many obstacles in mitigating the climate problem, solutions are possible.
Continue the Kyoto Process?
Hovi doubts that an agreement that would basically extend the Kyoto Protocol for another commitment period is the way to go to achieve more effective climate cooperation.
"The Kyoto Protocol has been described as a cautious first step, one that will make it possible for others to join in later. But key countries like the United States and China have few incentives to join an international climate agreement based on the Kyoto Protocol," says Hovi.
One suggestion for increasing the incentives for other countries to join the climate cooperation is to link the climate issue to other areas of international cooperation, such as technology, trade, or development assistance. But Hovi does not believe that such issue linkage will be credible. For example, it is not in the best interests of the Kyoto countries to undermine the World Trade Organization (WTO) by introducing trade restrictions against countries that do not participate in Kyoto - such as the United States. Moreover, the WTO's non-discrimination principle makes it difficult to introduce trade restrictions against the United States and Australia but not against developing countries, which also do not have binding emissions targets.
"Besides, history shows that this kind of pressure rarely works on a superpower such as the United States," says Hovi.
Another obstacle is that developing countries prioritize their own economic development. They will not accept binding emissions targets until the United States also reduces its own greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, the United States is unwilling to jeopardize the competitiveness of its own business and industry, and thus does not wish to participate in an international agreement that does not also include the developing countries.
"To overcome this particular obstacle, we should focus on climate measures that do not threaten economic development," advises Hovi.
The United States is also skeptical to the UN system, and Hovi believes that an alternative international climate agreement should not necessarily be put together within the UN framework, as the Kyoto Protocol is.
More information about international climate agreements is available online from CICERO.
Contact Info:
Jon Hovi Professor - Communications Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo and University of Oslo Tel : +47 22 85 87 91 E-mail: jon.hovi@stv.uio.no
Website : CICERO