Since the invention of the wheel, technology has played a key role in propelling economic growth. Early in the 20th century, Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev observed that western capitalist economies tended to go through long periods of economic expansion fueled by the invention or adoption of new technology. He called these cycles of about 60 years" long waves", which were usually followed by periods of depression or recession.

The first of these "long waves" commenced in the 1770s with the various innovations that gave birth to the industrial revolution. Then came the second, fueled by the steam age in 1830, and the third, the age of steel, electricity and heavy engineering, then the fourth was the age of oil from the early 1900s to 1970. We're currently in the latter half of the information age that began in the late 1960s, propelled by a revolution in telecommunications and information technology.

What Kondratiev couldn't foresee in the Russia of 100 years ago was that we now live in an age so shaped be the previous waves of economic expansion that the next wave could be driven by the efforts to clear up the the mess left behind by previous economic growth. Pollution, climate change, dwindling fossil fuel reserves and energy insecurity are all consequences of the first, second, third and fourth Kondratiev waves. Emissions abatement, enviornmental protection, renewable energy and maybe hydrogen storage, could easily be the technologies that propel the sixth Kondratiev wave, which if the sixty year cycle continues, is about to begin in the next 10 years or so.

Renewable energy has rapidly moved in recent years from being a niche obsession to becoming an economic reality, from the fringes, to the mainstream. But even its most avid champions would struggle to contend that renewable energy is a key economic force--yet. The signs are there, though, that the green energy age may be round the corner.

In a recent issue of Renewable Energy Report we reported on how the Portuguese government, for one, is betting on renewable energy to be the new engine of economic growth in the country. Portugal's President Cavaco Silva said the country would benefit from more renewable energy, because renewable energy meant more jobs as new companies form to make the components for renewable energy projects and to build, maintain and operate them. And there are already some regions in countries like Germany in Denmark where whole communities have prospered on the back of renewables in a similar way to which they were dependent on coal 200 years ago.

Are we about to enter the green energy age?

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