London (Platts)--11May2007

Global stocks of gasoline are already tight and could fall further next
month despite an expected increase in refinery throughput, the International
Energy Agency said Friday.

     After a sustained six-month fall in world oil stocks during the fourth
quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2007, crude stocks are also set
to decline sharply by the summer unless OPEC increases production, the
Paris-based IEA said in its latest monthly oil market report.

     "Gasoline stocks are tight and may tighten further in June unless
refinery capacity rises more sharply than current forecasts suggest," the
report said.

     In March, the most recent month with complete data, oil stocks in OECD
countries fell by 17.1 million barrels, or an average of 550,000 b/d, the IEA
said, bringing the average stock draw during the first quarter to what it
called a "dramatic" 930,000 b/d.

     Preliminary data for April showed a rise in total stocks of 8.2 million
barrels, with a 10.2 million barrel rise in crude inventories outweighing a
refined product stock draw of 2.4 million barrels, the report said.

     Refinery runs are expected to rise this month as plants restart after
maintenance, but this is likely "to lag the 1.6 million b/d jump in global
product demand" forecast in June, the IEA said.

     "That certainly implies a tightening of product stocks, but also in total
oil stocks if crude supplies remain at current levels," it added.

     "Unplanned outages permitting, there should be plenty of available
capacity to meet forecast product demand increases in July and August, but to
achieve this without causing a steep decline in crude stocks, requires an
increase in OPEC output before the summer," it said.

     "While the optimist can point to the glass being half-full, this report
anticipates a thirsty market in the months ahead," the IEA said.

     The IEA estimated world refinery throughput at 72.4 million b/d in May,
down from 73.9 million b/d in January this year, but predicted that runs would
rise to 73 million b/d in June and to 74.8 million b/d in July and August.

     This expected increase is almost all seen coming in the OECD, where
throughput is set to rise from 37.9 million b/d in may to 38.3 million b/d in
June and then to 39.8 million b/d in July.

     Elsewhere in its report, the IEA made minor revisions to some supply and
demand data, raising the 'call' on OPEC this year by 100,000 b/d to 30.5
million b/d.