Brussels (Platts)--9May2007

OPEC expects world oil demand to increase by an average 1.7% per year
over the next 23 years to total 117.6 million b/d by 2030, when 49 million b/d
of demand would be meet by OPEC crude, an OPEC economist said Wednesday.   
   
     Citing OPEC's latest long-term forecasts, alternative energy analyst Fuad
Mohamed Siala from the group's Vienna secretariat, told a refining conference
in Brussels that OPEC crude production was expected to total 38 million b/d in
2020 and rise to 49 million b/d by 2030,when natural gas liquids and
alternative oil would make up a further 9.8 million b/d. In 2030, non-OPEC
production is expected to reach 58.8 million b/d, Siala said.

     In its most recent Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC cut the forecast for
demand for its oil in 2007 by 120,000 b/d to 30.28 million b/d.

     Siala also reiterated OPEC concerns that fast growing interest in
renewable fuels, such as biofuels, by oil consuming nations could jeopardize
OPEC's existing capacity expansion plans.

     "We have legitimate concerns to revisit our investment plans,... it's not
like we're threatening we are calling for interdependence." Siala said on the
sidelines of the conference. "We are questioning this notion of supply
security in the sense of being self reliant. This goes totally against the
grain of globalization...we are calling for interdependence instead of
independence."

     OPEC members are currently spending a planned $120 billion on production
upgrade projects by 2010 which should see the cartel's capacity rise to 40
million b/d, he said. He added that OPEC expected global biofuels production
to reach 2.8 million b/d in 2030 under a reference, or 'business-as-usual'
scenario, with a possible total of more than 5 million b/d if further policy
measures are taken to promote biofuels.