| Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity Issued: 2007 Apr 29 2200 UTC Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 953 (S10E23) has shown a slight decrease in trailing spots bordering the main spot. Also, the beginnings of a possible separation of penumbral area on the eastern side of the main spot was noted. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for an M-flare from Region 953. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Increased activity was due to the continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods possible on 30 April. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels by 01 and 02 May. III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May Class M 20/20/20 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Apr 085 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 020/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 010/013-008/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/15 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 25/10/10 Major-severe storm 15/05/01 For current space weather conditions please refer to: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |