| Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity Issued: 2007 May 02 2200 UTC Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 953 (S11W30) produced a C8.5 flare at 02/2348Z. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 953. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 04-05 May. Expect quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods on 06 May as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. III. Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 May 083 Predicted 04 May-06 May 085/080/080 90 Day Mean 03 May 073 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 005/005-005/005-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/25 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 For current space weather conditions please refer to: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |