IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Newly numbered Region 956 (N02E61) produced several low level B-class flares during the period. This region rapidly grew into a Cao beta magnetic sunspot group. Region 955 (S09W45) underwent little change during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. Emerging Region 956 may further develop this period to produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions possible throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 073
Predicted 15 May-17 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 14 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

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NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales