Crude futures stabilized, making up for late Thursday's losses

London (Platts)--9Nov2007


Global crude futures stabilized in Friday morning trading in Europe time,
after Thursday's volatile session.

But ICE Brent futures, in particular, seemed to be struggling to continue
the upward move, as news that production in the North Sea following a heavy
storm restarted Friday.

At 11:04 GMT, front-month December ICE Brent futures were stable, up 2
cents to $92.81/barrel from Thursday's settlement, while December NYMEX WTI
improved 37 cents to $95.83/b.

In the Middle East, January DME Oman was slightly lower, down 8 cents to
$87.12/b, while the January ICE Dubai futures contract failed to attract any
trading activity so far at the time of writing.

Thursday's lunchtime and early afternoon rally was mainly fueled by
supply fears in the North Sea due to an expected storm and refinery problems
in the US due to fires, which pushed up product futures. Moreover, an ever
weakening US dollar also lent some support.

However, Thursday's late selling spree occurred as the focus shifted away
from the weak US dollar and supportive factors such as supply issues to weaker
US equity markets.

"Another dynamic shift that appears to be transpiring is the apparent
tendency of the crude market to shift focus away from a weakening US dollar
and declining crude supplies and toward a weak stock market that could be
signaling an economic downturn that could feed into a further downshift in oil
consumption," energy consultant Jim Ritterbusch said in a report.

Supply worries at the North Sea oil and gas production fields seemed to
have eased as well, as production has restarted at Norwegian StatoilHydro's
Visund field following Thursday's announcement that production was stopped due
to severe weather conditions, a source at the company said Friday.

"Oseberg South will probably start up later today," the company source
said Friday. "The weather is calmer." Total oil and gas production from the
fields that were temporarily shut down is around 110,000 b/d.

Despite easing supply worries, given the current volatile structure of
the market, analysts still regard hitting the $100/b mark a viable option in
the next few trading days.

"The 100 $/b WTI target is still within a two-day reach under current
daily volatility. Today's closing will be crucial to assess if the 100 $/b
Call Options can still remain a trigger objective for Tuesday. The main
capping factor will remain the resistance induced by the weakness of the
global equity markets," Petromatrix said in a report Friday.

Looking at product futures, front-month ICE gasoil retreated Friday from
its record settlement seen on Thursday, in line with a late decline in crude
prices. November ICE gasoil lost $14 to $821.75/mt.

In the US, product futures were mixed, with December NYMEX heating oil
down 0.13 cents to $2.6045/gallon, after hitting a fresh all-time high at
$2.66/gallon on refinery fires in the US. December NYMEX RBOB was up 0.12
cents to $2.4388/gallon.

--Verena Peternell, verena_peternell@platts.com