IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. A co-rotating interaction
region was seen at the ACE spacecraft at 19/1715Z elevating solar
wind speeds to approximately 420 km/s. A sudden impulse (11nT) was
detected at the Boulder magnetometer at 19/1811Z. At the end of the
forecast period wind speed was approximately 440 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. On day one (20
November), expect mostly quiet to unsettled levels. On days two and
three (21 to 22 November), conditions are expected to increase to
unsettled to active levels, due to a coronal hole high speed stream
moving into a geoeffective position. Isolated minor storm levels at
middle latitudes, and major storm periods at high latitudes are also
possible on 21 and 22 November.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 070
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 010/010-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/30
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/40/35
Minor storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/15/15

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales