1.) Following in the mild footsteps of the first day of November, the first Monday of November featured 68°F in St. Louis, 60°F in Cleveland, and even 64°F in Poughkeepsie in the NYC suburbs. But abruptly transitioning from August-like temperatures 3 weeks ago to brisk, classic November weather this week, will act as a refreshing reminder that Autumn is finally upon us.

2.) Considering the record-warm October we completed and relative to the extremely mild Novembers of 2005-2006, the psychological stage was set for computer models and their followers to overcompensate. Consequently, forecasters went predictably hysterical with calls for "sustained major Winter pattern changes", for what will benignly turn out to be a typical November 72-96 hour cool snap, and temperatures will already be back approaching balmy 60°F levels in Chicago, Cincinnati and Philadelphia after this weekend. As forecasters get bored/antsy this time of year, and the quirkiness of models are in full bloom, more false alarms/exaggerations (like we've recently witnessed), are bound to arise. But when mild weather returns time and again, forecaster frustration sets in, and we believe the short-sighted calls for "Winter is over!" will begin to be heard before Thanksgiving.

3.) Back in the Summer our research advised of what will eventually become a recurring theme for the balance of 2007: Excessive Lake-Effect Sleet/Snow will be triggered by the combination of blustery cool fronts & historically warm Great Lake water temperatures. As real Winter is still a while away, this will be the main "wintery topic" for the East-Half of the Nation to contend with in the meantime. La Niña has already commenced its wetter Seasonal influences across the Pacific Northwest and Southeast Canada, its drier Seasonal influences across SoCal and the Southwest, (and occasional bouts of chilly waves impacting the Northern Rockies/Plains). But you'll hear from us first when legitimate, sustained Winter patterns are in store for the rest of the Nation East of the Mississippi, and everything else you hear will be the thermal roller-coaster called Autumn.

REGIONAL MEDIUM & LONG-RANGE WEATHER CAPSULES:

Northeast:

* After the I-95 metroplexes began the first 5 days of November on a mild note, the most brisk weather of the Autumn Season is arriving in the form of a 72-96 hour frontal-induced cool snap this week (during which suburban communities may see the first wet snowflakes of the year in the air at night). Thereafter, mild southerly advection from Bermuda Highs will oscillate with frontal passages sweeping down from Ontario, making for a seasonably variable environment that computer models will have a difficult time grappling with, but a quite benign pattern in the climate scope of things.

Southeast:

* The region is drying out once again as we head through November, and they are joining the ranks of southern California in having to contend with some wildfires, as both regions did in the Summer. The emerging positive-phased PNA Teleconnection will facilitate some more refreshing highs in the 60's and the dry weather/soil conditions will help facilitate some of the first frost/freezes of the Season for the region. Coastal interests should keep in mind that Tropical Disturbances & Storms are still possible deep into November if MJO, oceanic and shear conditions are ripe, or at the tail-end of fronts.

North-Central:

* Mid-West and Upper-Mississippi Valley States wrapped up one of their Top-5 warmest Octobers in recorded history, which has elevated Great Lake water temperatures to almost unprecedented levels for this time of year. These SST's and 850 mb flow-patterns have indeed made Lake-Effect snow & sleet a reality before November this year, and we continue to advise of a bountiful Lake-Effect Season for the balance of 2007. This region of the Nation will eventually be the focal point of more sustained La Niña-induced Canadian Polar waves this Winter, but with plenty of mild Autumn weather still in store over the next 6 weeks, we need to place passing cold fronts in perspective.

South-Central:

* Following a record-wet Summer, the dramatic (La Niña-assisted) drying-out of the Texas/Southern Plains region has commenced. With ample Autumn sunshine and minimal cool air penetration from the northern fronts, 70's and even 80's will still reign supreme through the medium range period. Tropical Disturbances and Storms are still possible deep into November (for Gulf Coastal areas) if MJO, oceanic and shear conditions are ripe, or at the tail-end of fronts.

Northwest:

* Heavy Rains/Mountain Snows across the Pacific Northwest & Southwestern Canada is the only weather phenomenon that has already commenced several weeks ago and that will be a recurring theme straight into 2008, which is directly associated with La Niña. Precipitation and/or clouds will maintain mostly cooler-Coastal themes into November, but interior/northern Rockies areas will enjoy some milder days during this first full-week of November.

Southwest:

* Some expectedly hot days topped off what had been a rather Seasonable October, and more warmth is carrying right into early November (including the last 3 days in Phoenix hitting 92°F - 94°F). Drought and wildfire risk can easily become dangerous reality again from the combination of down-sloping winds and precipitation completely absent from California to New Mexico (despite recent reversals to on-shore flow that have temporarily abated the situation for Southern California).

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