A number in a report; a milestone passed?

One little noticed figure in Wednesday's Energy Information Administration report: 4,942.

Actually, the figure is 4,942,000, and it's the average number of barrels per day of crude that the US produced last week.

US production has dropped below the 5 million b/d mark before, so it's not unprecedented. Production took a big hit in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in late 2005, and output didn't move consistently above 5 million b/d after that double whammy until the following February. There were also dips below 5 million b/d in September 2004; that was right after Hurricane Ivan.

There was another dip below the 5 million b/d mark, in the final week of July 2006. That appears to have been related to particularly warm weather in Alaska. Warm weather hinders the level of Alaskan output.

It's possible that last week's decline to less than 5 million b/d was as a result of maintenance at the Mars platform in the Gulf of Mexico, work that is now complete. But that maintenance began earlier this month. An impact from the maintenance is not obviously visible in the prior week's report.

So maybe last week's decline was because of the Mars work; maybe not. But if it isn't, it could be that we'll mark the week ended November 16, 2007 as the point at which US crude production slipped under the 5 million b/d mark, maybe forever.


Posted by John Kingston on November 21, 2007 10:00 PM