World oil demand seen rising 2.3% to 87.69 mil b/d in 2008: IEA

London (Platts)--13Nov2007


The International Energy Agency said Tuesday there were "clear signs"
that high oil prices were hitting demand in OECD countries, slashing its
estimates of consumption for the fourth quarter of 2007 and next year.

Demand in the OECD is now expected to fall for the second consecutive
year in 2007 to an average of 49.23 million b/d, down from 49.32 million b/d
in 2006 and from 49.67 million b/d in 2005, the IEA said in its latest monthly
oil market report.

"The effects of this year's price rise are seemingly already contributing
to slowing down transportation fuels demand, notably in the US," the IEA
report said.

"While there are clear signs that the rise in prices since the second
quarter this year has pressured gasoline and diesel demand growth in the OECD,
it is too soon to believe that significant structural changes have taken
place," the IEA said.

For the world as a whole, the IEA cut its estimate of demand for the
fourth quarter of this year by 500,000 b/d to 87.14 million b/d, and for 2008
by 300,000 b/d to 87.69 million b/d.

World oil demand is still expected to grow by a healthy 2.3% next year,
largely due to robust economic growth outside the OECD and the fact that
consumers in China and the Middle East are largely protected from high prices
by subsidies, the IEA report said.

Demand in China is expected to rise 5.7% to an average of 7.97 million
b/d next year, while demand in the Middle East is seen rising 4.4% to 6.87
million b/d.

Demand in the OECD is also expected to recover, and should rise by 1.2%
to reach 49.84 million b/d.

The IEA left its estimates of non-OPEC oil supply for 2007 and 2008
largely unchanged, meaning that the downward revisions to demand had a
knock-on effect on the 'call' on OPEC crude.

The call on OPEC is now expected to 31 million b/d in 2008, 300,000 b/d
less than previously predicted and only 200,000 b/d above this year's expected
call of 30.8 million b/d, the IEA said.