Crude futures retreat from Thursday's post-stats rally

London (Platts)--12Oct2007


Global crude futures drifted lower Friday, taking a breather after their
near $2/barrel surge seen in late-Thursday trading following the release of
the latest US weekly inventory data, which showed an unexpected draw in crude
stocks.

Although the Energy Information Administration's data lacked a clear
bullish signal, the whole complex took direction from it to rally on Thursday,
particularly from the drop in crude stocks. Even the International Energy
Agency's confirmation on Thursday that global crude production was rising did
not prevent front-month crude from rallying near all-time highs.

At 11:40 London time (10:40 GMT) on Friday, however, prices had
retreated, with front-month November ICE Brent down 33 cents to $79.82/b, from
its record settlement Thursday of $80.15/barrel.

The November NYMEX WTI contract also fell, losing 30 cents to $82.78/b.

In the Middle Eastern crude futures market, December DME Oman was down 20
cents to $76.20/b, while no activity was yet seen for December ICE Dubai.

"The market is dead this morning, very quiet, what we are seeing at the
moment is just a correction from Thursday's price rally following the stats,"
a London-based broker said.

The EIA reported an unexpected 1.7 million barrel draw in crude futures,
in contrast to analysts' forecast of a 200,000 barrel build, while refinery
utilization increased 0.3 percentage points to 87.8%. Mixed signals emerged
from product stocks, with gasoline up 1.7 million barrels, in contrast to
expectations that the level would remain unchanged, while distillate stocks
declined by 600,000 barrels, more than expected.

With the lack of fundamental bullishness, prices remain within a $6 range
according to analysts and Friday will potentially see a test to break out of
the range. With geopolitical and weather-related fears easing, the risk
premium in crude futures prices could decline.

"The workers strike in Chevron Nigeria did not last more than one day,
the IEA continues to revise down demand for the fourth quarter and we do not
think that the EIA data was particularly bullish," analysts said in a
Petromatrix report Friday.

Product futures also retreated from Thursday's highs, with the new
front-month November ICE gasoil contract losing $8.50 to $695.75/mt.

In the US, November NYMEX heating oil retreated from an all-time
intra-day high of $2.2711/gallon seen Thursday, and was down 1.24 cents to
$2.2349/gallon from Thursday's settle. November NYMEX RBOB declined 1.26 cents
to $2.054/gallon.

--Verena Peternell, verena_peternell@platts.com