GERMANY: October 23, 2007


BERLIN - Global oil output peaked in 2006 and will decline by seven percent per year, a Berlin-based energy think tank said on Monday, drawing a bleaker picture of energy supplies than other forecasts.


Energy Watch Group, which has ties to the German Green Party, said in a report that oil production will fall by around 50 percent by as early as 2030, leading to economic and social upheaval.

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower," the report said.

"This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

Peak oil, the view that oil supplies have reached, or will soon reach a high point and then decline, is a theory that is widely rejected by the oil industry.

But the International Energy Agency, adviser to 26 industrialised countries, said in a July report that world demand would rise faster than expected to 2012, while supply lagged, leading to a supply crunch. [ID:nL0996584]

US crude hit an all-time high of US$90.07 a barrel on Friday.


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