Sep 30, 2007 - Knight Ridder Tribune Business News
Author(s): Michael Hawthorne

Sep. 30

Curbing global-warming pollution in Illinois might start with a ban on Thomas Edison's incandescent light bulb.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich is mulling plans to rid the state of traditional, energy-wasting lights as part of a sweeping package of policy changes intended to cut greenhouse gases by 25 percent by 2020, the same target set by California and bipartisan measure pending in Congress. A panel of experts assembled by the governor concluded that meeting the ambitious goal also would require cleaner cars and trucks, more energy-efficient building codes and appliances, lower-carbon fuels and scores of wind turbines to generate pollution- ree electricity. But as Blagojevich vows to join a growing number of states taking steps to reduce greenhouse gases in the absence of federal action, Illinois also plans to increase its reliance on coal-fired power plants, the nation's leading source of pollution linked to global warming.

In a sign of the coal industry's political clout, Blagojevich and his aides say that Illinois can build at least five conventional coal plants and still manage to cut the state's emissions of heat-trapping pollution back to 1990 levels. That gamble -- c itics describe it as more of a disastrous folly -- depends on several assumptions about how a carbon-constrained state would look in the next decade. Some of Illinois' aging, inefficient coal plants would have to be scuttled. Others would need to generate considerably less electricity than they do today. Most new sources of energy would be required to store carbon dioxide instead of releasing it into the atmosphere -- something industry leaders think is feasible but too expensive to be practical, at least for now.

Many climate scientists and policymakers think that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to surge, the results could include widespread weather shifts, coastal flooding, prolonged droughts and deadly heat waves. Already, there are signs that changes in he Earth's climate could disrupt agriculture and speed up the extinction of plants and animals. Legislative tension a challenge States, cities and corporations throughout the nation are trying to figure out how to slow down or reverse those potentially devastating changes. But Blagojevich, who has developed an increasingly combative relationship with the General Assembly, will f ce a daunting challenge trying to sell legislators on a global warming plan.

To succeed, the governor will need to persuade skeptical business interests to back policies that could hurt older, entrenched industries but that are projected to create jobs and economic development related to cleaner energy, factories and products. "What we've come up with is far from crazy," said Doug Scott, director of the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, who led the panel that drafted the recommendations. "It's doable and can not only benefit the environment, but the economy as well." If Illinois does nothing, the state's greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase to 312 million tons annually in 2020, according to the EPA.

The goal is to change the way businesses and households operate and cut that amount to 231 million tons. Requiring automakers to sell more fuel-efficient cars and trucks in Illinois would eliminate about 9 million tons of greenhouse gases. Banning incandescent light bulbs in favor of compact fluorescent lamps or other types of energy-sipping lights would s ave another 7 million tons. Building just one large conventional coal plant, though, would add 12 million tons. "Important choices need to be made, but there are so many competing interests at stake," said Henry Henderson, a former Chicago environment commissioner who now works for the Natural Resources Defense Council.

"From where I stand, we shouldn't continue o rely on 19th Century technology that digs us into an even deeper hole." Industries are working to thwart any state action, which they contend would wreck the Illinois economy and drive factories and power plants out of the state. If anything, they prefer national policies that would spread the burden and lower the cost of r ducing emissions. Opponents point out that Illinois is responsible for only a fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions. They've repeatedly expressed doubts that one state can make a difference. "The scenario Illinois is envisioning is far too rosy," said Matt Most, director of environmental policy for Midwest Generation, owner of six coal plants that represent the state's largest source of carbon dioxide.

"We're sitting above vast, affordable eserves of coal. Going it alone would result in a massive displacement of existing coal plants and drive up the cost of energy." Under the recommendations drafted by Blagojevich's panel, the biggest savings would come from a new program that would cap the amount of carbon dioxide produced by the state's coal-fired power plants and large factories. Industries would buy credits that allow them to continue polluting as long as the overall target is met. Officials hopeful about credits The proposal Blagojevich is considering envisions Illinois linking to an emerging larger market in which polluters could buy credits from cleaner sources in other states.

It is patterned after a similar system that has reduced sulfur dioxide pollution f om power plants. State officials contend the program, known as cap-and-trade, would encourage investment in green energy projects, including methods that aim to keep carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere by pumping it deep underground into brine-soaked sandstone. They assume most new coal plants will be built with that technology, called carbon sequestration, even though questions remain about its economic viability and reliability. However, five new power plants already permitted by the Illinois EPA would burn coal in roughly the same way as ones built during the 1950s and '60s.

Those old, inefficient coal plants now provide about half of the state's electricity. They also emitted more than 105 million tons of carbon dioxide last year, according to federal records. Only five states had power plants that released more. To meet the state's target, energy companies likely would need to buy a significant chunk of greenhouse-gas credits or scrap some of their units. Some might follow the example set by the municipal utility in Springfield, which is building a new coal pla t and also buying enough wind energy to power the Illinois Capitol and other state office buildings. Springfield's utility will end up producing 25 percent less carbon dioxide than it does now, equivalent to taking more than 100,000 cars off the road.

Ron Burke, associate director of the Illinois EPA, noted that other steps already are being taken that would help meet the governor's goal. As part of another deal that will cut mercury and smog-forming pollution, Midwest Generation and other companies have agreed to shut down some of their coal plants. Also, recent legislation signed by Blagojevich will give a huge boost to energy-efficiency programs and require energy companies to purchase a quarter of their electricity from wind turbines and other carbon-free sources by 2025. "Nobody thought we could do that, either, but we did," said Howard Learner, executive director of the Environmental Law and Policy Center.

"If the federal government won't act, we need to step in and do something about global warming." - -- - At a glance What: Gov. Rod Blagojevich wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Illinois by 25 percent by 2020. When: The governor is considering sweeping policy changes to meet the goal. Legislation and rules changes are expected by early next year. Advantages: Political momentum to change is building in states and municipalities across the country. Congress is debating a national solution that would require state action. Obstacles: Business interests think a state-only plan could damage the economy.

The politically embattled Blagojevich may not have the clout to pass aggressive global-warming legislation. mhawthorne@tribune.com
 

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