When the
Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate by a half of a
percentage point, it triggered a vigorous debate. The
central bank, which works to balance economic growth
with inflationary pressures, is now tested as to where
its allegiance lay.
|
Ken
Silverstein
EnergyBiz Insider
Editor-in-Chief |
One side argues that having the Fed
focus on price stability will ultimately result in a
more robust economy and lower interest rates -- a
strategy followed by many central banks in the
industrialized world and one that has a growing base of
support in the United States. Capital formation would
therefore become much easier and as such, investment and
borrowing decisions would be more solid. Utilities,
which are capital intensive industries and which manage
huge portfolios of assets, could be among the
beneficiaries.
Others, though, says that such a strategy is too
rigid. Central bankers must have the flexibility to
respond to such crises as deep recessions and wars. That
thinking goes on to reason that the globalization of the
world economy -- the mega store phenomenon -- has
largely worked to defeat inflation. In other words,
suppliers keep prices low so as to not lose market share
to competitors.
The Fed cut the federal funds rate from 5.25 percent
to 4.75 percent in mid September. It was the first such
move since the dot.com bubble burst six years ago and
was meant to avoid the possibility of a recession. The
lower interest rates, in essence, keep the economy
purring along by pouring money into it. Commercial banks
will then compete for loans and therefore trim their
prime lending rates to consumers and businesses that
will take advantage of lower borrowing costs.
The cut in the fed funds rate comes atop an earlier
move by the Fed to reduce the so-called discount rate by
half of a percentage point. That's the rate in which the
central bank will loan directly to other financial
institutions. It's all in response to a major drop in
the housing sector that has damaged financial markets
around the world and led to fears of economic trouble.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's philosophy appears to be
similar to that of Alan Greenspan, who retired in
January 2006.
While Greenspan was determined to fight inflation, he
did show on a few occasions that he would loosen the
purse strings and cut interest rates during periods of
financial difficulties. Greenspan followed Paul Volker,
who was forced to fight a whopping inflation rate by
raising borrowing costs to record highs and ignoring
high unemployment levels -- moves that his supporters
say put the nation on the path to long term prosperity.
"Today's action is intended to help forestall some of
the adverse effects on the broader economy that might
otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial
markets and to promote moderate growth over time," the
Fed's most recent statement says. "Readings on core
inflation have improved modestly this year. However, the
(Fed) judges that some inflation risks remain, and it
will continue to monitor inflation developments
carefully."
Comfort Zone
The Federal Reserve can change the amount of money
that banks are holding in reserves by buying or selling
existing U.S. Treasury bonds, which is referred to as
open market operations. This influences banks' decisions
to make loans and therefore affects the nation's money
supply.
If the Fed buys bonds and increases bank reserves in
an effort to fend off recession, financial institutions
will then compete for business. That keeps interest
rates low. If utilities are able to borrow more to build
new infrastructure, total spending increases. Consumer
spending on such things as cars and appliances is also
affected. Overall production will rise as a result and
greater employment will follow. Prices, however, might
also jump as the demand for scarce goods and services
increases.
If, on the other hand, the Fed sells bonds to reduce
the money supply, it will result in higher interest
rates and less spending. While such a monetary policy
will lessen inflationary pressures, it will also
decrease capital expenditures by businesses. In the name
of maintaining price stability, total economic output is
curtailed.
The Fed's mission is defined by the Humphrey-Hawkins
Act of 1978, which essentially says that it must
consider employment, inflation and economic growth when
it comes to making open market decisions. Inflation
hawks say that a narrower focus on price stability would
reduce economic uncertainty and the inherent premium
built into interest rates. That, in turn, would give
capital intensive businesses such as utilities more
advantages. Namely, they would be able to borrow at
reduced costs and would have a more stable environment
to manage their assets.
Opponents of Humphrey-Hawkins reform contend that
central bankers must consider unemployment during
recessions and reject the notion of inflation-free
economic growth. One of the most persuasive defenders of
the current Fed role is the former Vice Chairman of the
Fed Alan Blinder. He argues that the immediate pains of
any recession and potentially high unemployment
necessitate an influx of money to keep interest rates
low -- a policy that he acknowledges could bring about
higher inflation.
Intellectually, the Fed is already geared toward
fighting inflation. But any formal policies that would
hinder its ability to respond to economic downturns are
questionable. The Fed's role is not to insulate
investors from the consequences of their decisions. But,
it is designed to provide reassurances to the economy
at-large.
Like all industries that manage billions in assets,
utilities would benefit from less market uncertainty and
greater insight into the Fed's decisions. But, they also
function in the broader economy and prosper from healthy
businesses and consumers. The discussion over just how
to balance price stability with long-term economic
growth will go on, however, the Fed continues to show
that it will act decisively in times of need.