US: October 26, 2007


CHICAGO - The La Nina weather phenomenon will usher in a mild US winter, expand the Southeast drought and may bring dryness to the Midwest next summer that could cause corn and soy crops to struggle a little, meteorologists said.


"We are definitely in a La Nina at this point and it is going to be with us through the entire winter season and into early spring," said Drew Lerner, meteorologist and owner of World Weather Inc in Kansas City.

A cooldown of surface water in the Pacific Ocean this year led to a shift away from the warm water phenomena El Nino, Spanish for "little boy", to the cool water phenomena La Nina, or "little girl."

"The implication is that by itself we would expect to see a warmer-than-normal winter with wet weather in the northwestern states and drier-than-usual weather in the southern states," Lerner said.

Very cold weather should be limited to the far northern portion of the United States while warmer and drier weather will prevail in the central and southern part of the country.

"It generally does not lean to persistently cold temperatures in the central and eastern part of the country," said Mike Palmerino, meteorologist for DTN Meteorlogix weather. "It usually tends to be normal or above-normal on temperatures, so that could be significant," he said.

Joe Bastardi, chief long-range forecaster for AccuWeather.com, has called for "the heart" of the winter to be very warm, with only the northwest receiving average to above-average cold and snow.

However, the warm weather combined with below average precipitation could be problematic for the drought-stricken southern states, Bastardi said in a statement.

While humans may bask in warmer-than-usual winter months and enjoy paying less money to warm their homes, crops in the United States may suffer if the Pacific waters stay cool and La Nina lingers for a long time.

"La Nina typically will break down in the early spring and if that occurs again this year that greatly improves the potential for widespread rainfall across the Midwest," Lerner said.

Both corn and soybeans grown in the United States are now being viewed as not only a source of food but a source of alternative energy to crude oil.

"If La Nina lasts through late spring or early summer we will miss the opportunity to pick up that additional precipitation and we will go into summer with a lot larger moisture deficit and we'll be behind the eight ball from the beginning," Lerner said.

Joel Widenor and David Streit, meteorologists for MDA Cropcast Agricultural Weather, wrote in a letter to clients that it now looks much more likely there will be a moderate strength La Nina this winter.

The implications are for milder temperatures and that the Southeast will turn considerably drier, leading to a very bad situation for agricultural areas next spring, they wrote.

"There were some comments early this season when La Nina started to make some news and temperatures were starting to cool that we could have a spring and early summer drought similar to 1988," Palmerino said.

But a drought is not expected this time around and meteorologists concur that weather patterns could quickly shift to a wetter scenario for the US crop areas by next spring.


Story by Sam Nelson


REUTERS NEWS SERVICE