Most of the US can expect above-average temperatures this winter, while
drier-than-average conditions will likely continue across already
drought-stricken parts of the US Southeast and Southwest, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration forecasters said Tuesday at the 2007-2008 Winter
Fuels Outlook conference in Washington.
"La Nina is here, with a weak-to-moderate event likely to persist through
the winter," Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy
director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said. "The big concern this
winter may be the persistence of drought across large parts of the already
parched South. And while December through February is likely to be another
milder-than-average winter for much of the country, people should still expect
some bouts of winter weather."
La Nina is a phenomenon marked by a cooling of the sea surface
temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
For the December through February period, NOAA forecasters predict the US
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will see above-average temperatures in response to
the long-term warming trend.
The agency said the drought-plagued Southeast is likely to remain
drier-than-average because of La Nina, while temperatures are expected to be
above average.
Meanwhile, in the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, temperatures and
precipitation should be above average, while the south-central Plains should
see drier-than-average conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures, NOAA
said.
The agency predicted that above-average temperatures are likely in the
central Plains, while the northern Plains has an equal chance of above-,
near-, or below-average temperature and precipitation.
In the Northwest, NOAA forecasters said they see equal chances for
above-, near-, or below-average temperatures and precipitation, influenced by
La Nina, should be above average in much of the region.
Drought conditions are expected to persist in the Southwest because of La
Nina and temperatures are likely to be above average, the agency said.
NOAA predicted that the upcoming winter will be 2.8% warmer than the
30-year norm, but 1.3% cooler than last year.