Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2007

 

Summary For September 24-30
Category G1 - G2 (Minor - Moderate) geomagnetic storms occurred on 27
September due to a disturbance in the solar wind flow. Category G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storms occurred during 28 - 29 September due to
high-speed solar winds from a coronal hole.

 
Outlook For October 3-9
No space weather storms are expected.


IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 October. On 03
October, activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels
due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. There will also
be a chance for brief minor storm periods at high latitudes.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 04
October as the high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 068
Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 068/068/067
90 Day Mean 01 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 007/010-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/25
Minor storm 01/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/35/30
Minor storm 05/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/10/05

 

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales