IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed steam. Earlier on 03 October,
minor to major storm levels were observed at high latitudes between
0600-1500Z due to this high speed stream. Real-time solar wind
speed at ACE reached a maximum of approximately 600 km/s at 04/0102Z
and has gradually decreased to approximately 515 km/s at forecast
issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods early on day
one (05 October). Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder
of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 067
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 009/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales