Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for 15-16 October. Quiet to
unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are
expected for 17 October due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 067
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/10

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales