Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2007
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

 
Summary For October 15-21
A category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm occurred on 19 October due to
high-speed solar winds related to a coronal hole.

 
Outlook For October 24-30
Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected during 25 - 26
October due to coronal hole effects.


IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 23 October. Activity is
anticipated to increase to unsettled to active levels late on 24
October and continue through the forecast period. Minor storm
periods at middle latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes
are possible on 24 and 25 October due to a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 067
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/008-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor storm 05/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/10/15

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2007 Oct 23 1425 UTC
Station: GOES12
Observed Yesterday: Yes
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3090 pfu


 

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales