US Weather Commentary

Location: New York
Author: Weather 2000, Inc.
Date: Friday, October 19, 2007
 

Extremely-Warm October continues for most of Nation, and remember Winter is a long way away.........

Anticipate Forecasters & Outlooks that called for a Cold October to reverse their stance, at the whim of fickle models....

REGIONAL MEDIUM & LONG-RANGE WEATHER CAPSULES:

Northeast:

  • Warm Days continue to alternate with Record-Warm Days this month, with the occasional refreshing Autumnal frontal passage thrown in. Models (erroneous output) and short-term forecasters (boredom) will continue to call for major Winter pattern changes which never materialize. Also, please don't get caught up in the smoke & mirrors chatter regarding northern snow-pack or weak-La Niņa, 'correlations'.

Southeast:

  • Warm Days continue to alternate with Very Warm Days this month, and the Spring-like pattern will trigger some strong thunderstorms and convective downpours (especially in the proximity of Ocean and Gulf moisture sources). Tropical Disturbances and Storms are still possible if MJO, oceanic and shear conditions are ripe, or at the tail-end of fronts.

North-Central:

  • Warm Days continue to alternate with Record-Warm Days this month, with the occasional refreshing Autumnal frontal passage thrown in. Great Lake SST's and 850 mb flow-patterns insinuate that Lake-Effect snow & sleet is possible even before November this year.  Also, please don't get caught up in the smoke & mirrors chatter regarding northern snow-pack or weak-La Niņa, 'correlations'.

South-Central:

  • Warm Days continue to alternate with Seasonable Days this month, and following a record-wet Summer the dramatic (La Niņa-assisted) drying-out of the [NM, TX, OK, AR] region has commenced. Tropical Disturbances and Storms are still possible (for Gulf Coastal areas) if MJO, oceanic and shear conditions are ripe, or at the tail-end of fronts.

Northwest:

  • Cool Days continue to alternate with Seasonable Days this month, with anomalous precipitation (especially for coastal States). Heavy Rains/Mountain Snows in this quadrant of the Nation is the only weather phenomenon that has already commenced weeks ago and that will be a recurring theme straight into 2008, which is directly associated with La Niņa.  Hence, this is the only area of the U.S. where one should be looking for "cold surprises" or the "earliest hints of Winter", during October.

Southwest:

  • Very Seasonable conditions continue this month with some warmer days on the short-term horizon.  Drought and wildfire risk remains a threat with precipitation completely absent from Southern California to Western New Mexico through the medium-range period.

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