Three main (tangible & psychological) topics at play as we close out October and enter November:

1.) "Hot" Weather for Mid-West/Northeast finally comes to and end, but Mild/Above Normal remain ongoing themes.

2.) First nippy temperatures of year (East of Rockies) will dribble down at times from Canada into (low-populated) High/Northern Plains.

3.) Expect "Noon Models" and the subsequent "Mid-Day Updates" from popular services to remain the most erratic, day-to-day.

REGIONAL MEDIUM & LONG-RANGE WEATHER CAPSULES:

Northeast:

* October 2007 continues to be characterized by pleasantly Mild Days alternating with Extremely Warm Days, with the occasional refreshing Autumnal frontal passage thrown in that bring temperatures back to Seasonable reality. Models (erroneous output) and short-term forecasters (boredom) will continue to call for major "Winter pattern changes" which never materialize. Also, please don't get caught up in the smoke & mirrors chatter regarding northern snow-pack or weak-La Niña, 'correlations'.

Southeast:

* Warm Days have been the main theme this month, but the Spring-like pattern is also triggering some (cooling) strong thunderstorms & convective downpours (especially in the proximity of Ocean and Gulf moisture sources). Such rains are well-needed across several Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States which are contending with extreme drought from the Summer, but such surface conditions can also cause flash-flooding scenarios. Tropical Disturbances and Storms are still possible if MJO, oceanic and shear conditions are ripe, or at the tail-end of fronts.

North-Central:

* Warm Days continue to alternate with Extremely Warm Days this month, with the occasional brisk Autumnal frontal passage from Canada thrown in. Great Lake SST's and 850 mb flow-patterns insinuate that Lake-Effect snow & sleet is possible even before November this year. Also, please don't get caught up in the smoke & mirrors chatter regarding northern snow-pack or weak-La Niña, 'correlations'.

South-Central:

* Warm Days continue to alternate with Seasonable Days this month, with some cloud-supported cooler weather on the short-term horizon for eastern sections. Following a record-wet Summer the dramatic (La Niña-assisted) drying-out of the Texas/Southern Plains region has slowly commenced. Tropical Disturbances and Storms are still possible (for Gulf Coastal areas) if MJO, oceanic and shear conditions are ripe, or at the tail-end of fronts.

Northwest:

* Cool Days continue to alternate with Seasonable Days this month, with anomalous precipitation (especially for coastal States). Heavy Rains/Mountain Snows in this quadrant of the Nation is the only weather phenomenon that has already commenced weeks ago and that will be a recurring theme straight into 2008, which is directly associated with La Niña. The NW mountains and Rockies have been and remain the only area of the U.S. where one should really be looking for "cold surprises" or the "earliest hints of Winter", during October.

Southwest:

* Very pleasant and seasonably warm conditions continue this month with even some hot days on the short-term horizon. Drought and wildfire risk remains a dangerous threat from the combination of down-sloping winds and precipitation completely absent from California to New Mexico through the medium-range period.

Essentially all of the weather consulting services out there have short-term and perhaps some medium-term specialities. So when forecast topics delve into longer-range or fluid-dynamic topics such as ENSO, Tele-connections, climate physics, surface fluxes & feedbacks, etc. their insights might appear fuzzy. In the midst of this Season transition period, folks have asked to clarify and explain the dizzying (and often contradictory) weather information they receive on a daily basis. Below, are some of the most popular subjects of confusion and our corresponding pointers to help guide you.

MORE AUTUMN POINTERS:

* September is a Summer month, October-November are transition months, and January-March (December-April during robust ENSO Events) is the Winter Season. People may scoff at this new Season paradigm, but those who have been caught off guard the past 5 years by significant post-New Year's cold, know better.

* As we've cautioned the past few Summers, short-term forecasters will tend to grossly overestimate October-November Cold and grossly underestimate January-March Cold, for the Nation. So expect these discrepancies between prevailing consensus and reality to continue.

* With the Summer Season behind us and the Hurricane Season winding down, it is an annual phenomena this time of year for most forecasters to get bored/anxious and routinely call for "Winter weather pattern changes" (usually provoked by a rogue model run). So routine false alarms should also be anticipated, especially from "mid-day updates" or "morning models runs" (which are extremely fickle partially do to a reference climatology that is only comprised of a handful of years).

* Even the warmest of warm Autumn months feature numerous cold frontal passages, so don't confuse the inherent fluctuations of October/November temperatures with hemispheric pattern changes. You'll here from us first when something substantial and long-lasting is on the horizon.

* If developments that are misconstrued as Winter's arrival but which could have a psychological impact are of interest to you, your best bet has been to look West. Pockets of sub-freezing chilly temperatures across the Rockies and mountain snows have already made some local headlines this month. Further East, Lake Effect Sleet/Snow will be the first media headline associated with the term "Winter", and frontal systems dropping high temperatures from extremely warm to slightly cool may also have brief 'shock value'.

* It's also common practice for weather consulting services to misunderstand ENSO science. Weekly fluctuations in ENSO-region Sea Surface Temperatures are "noise" to climate scientists, yet they are routinely harped on by others to defend a revision to their ENSO outlook. Unfortunately, this led popular firms to declare that "La Niña was unlikely to develop in 2007", or that a warmer/cooler weekly reading alters their Winter ENSO expectations.

* The use of "analog composites", has also become a dangerous practice. By lumping together 1997-98 and 1982-83 (both robust El Niño Episodes) as a predictor of a very warm populated-city Winter forecast for 2002-03 (a modest El Niño Episode with very different Tele-connections and surface conditions at play), led to one of the greatest forecast service errors of the long-lasting and historic cold that ensued that year. ENSO Events, their onset, intensity, interaction with Tele-connections and regional surface conditions portend to literally dozens on climate permutations, so be wary of simple year-to-year comparisons.

For better or worse, computer model runs, weekly ENSO updates, and emotional "wish-casting", will likely be part of your informational palette and impact markets, for years to come. While we refrain such activities, we acknowledge their ongoing presence and are always here to help debunk forecast rumors, correct meteorological fallacies, and help answer any of your weather questions.