IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only one low-level
B-class flare was observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. A single
period of active conditions was observed at the Boulder magnetometer
between 03/1200-1500Z. Real-time solar wind speed at ACE remains
elevated at approximately 645 km/sec at forecast issue time due to
the lingering effects of the coronal hole high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04 August. Quiet conditions
are expected on 05 August. Expect quiet to active conditions to
return on 06 August, with isolated minor storm periods possible at
high latitudes, as a recurrent coronal hole moves into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 068
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 017/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/35
Minor storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/35
Minor storm 05/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales