Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2007 Sep 10 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z

to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk

remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron

flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (11 - 13

September).

III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 10 Sep 067

Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 067/067/067

90 Day Mean 10 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 002/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01