Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2007 Sep 13 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z

to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains

spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue

at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed remains below 300

km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit

reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated unsettled periods are

possible on 14 September.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 13 Sep 066

Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 067/067/067

90 Day Mean 13 Sep 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 002/001

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/05

Minor storm 05/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/10

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01