IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet, but increased to unsettled
to active levels beginning at 1300Z. The increased activity was
most likely due to a solar sector boundary crossing. ACE data
reflected the approaching high speed stream as solar wind speed and
temperature began to increase in the latter portion of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for active to
minor-storm periods at high latitudes, as the recurrent coronal
hole-high speed steam becomes increasingly geoeffective. These
conditions are expected to last from 21 September through 23
September.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 067
Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 20 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 010/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/35
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/35/35
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/10
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales