IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active with a period of
minor storming observed at middle latitudes. An elevated solar wind
speed due to a coronal hole high speed stream contributed to the
activity. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 620
km/s at the time of issue. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods
on 25 September due to the ongoing coronal hole high speed stream.
Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 26 - 27 September.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 066
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 066/066/067
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales