Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2008 Apr 03 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z

to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Spotless plage Region 989

(S11W41) produced two low-level C-class flares early in the period.

No new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare

from plage Region 989.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux

at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (04 April) with

active periods at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole

high-speed stream becomes geoeffective. Activity is expected to

increase to active levels on days 2 - 3 (05 - 06 April) with minor

to major storm periods at high latitudes as the high-speed stream

continues.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 03 Apr 076

Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 075/070/070

90 Day Mean 03 Apr 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 001/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 007/010-015/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/40/30

Minor storm 01/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/50/50

Minor storm 05/25/25

Major-severe storm 01/05/05