Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2008 Apr 14 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z

to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in

the past 24 hours. New Region 990 (N26E20) was numbered today. The

magnetic polarity (negative leader, positive trailer) of Region 990

is consistent with a new cycle sunspot.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux

at geosynchronous orbit was high during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 14 Apr 069

Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 14 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 006/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01