IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 990 (N27W03)
produced a low level B-class flare at 0634Z. This region has decayed
to spotless plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active period between 0600 - 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 070
Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 16 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales