Washington (Platts)--28Apr2008

The US Senate Democratic leadership and key members pushing a climate
change bill will begin this week a series of closed-door meetings to discuss
strategy over how to pass the legislation, a Democrat aide said Friday.

The bill (S.2191) would create a cap on greenhouse gas emissions. Debate
on the bill will begin June 2 on the Senate floor.

"They're going to be having some meetings next week and probably the week
after, then starting regularly, up until the point of bill consideration," the
aide said. "At this point it's all about what they expect and what the 'poison
pill' amendments are going to be. They have only had cursory meetings thus
far," the aide added.

The cap-and-trade legislation, which aims to reduce emissions 70% from
2005 levels by 2050, is the work of Senator Joseph Lieberman, a Connecticut
Independent, and Senator John Warner, a Virginia Republican. Senator Barbara
Boxer, the California Democrat who heads the Environment and Public Works
Committee, also backs the bill.

All three senators plan to meet with Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada
and other top Democrats.

Some of the major opposition will be from an alternate amendment that
Republican Senators George Voinovich of Ohio and Christopher "Kit" Bond of
Missouri will propose. The amendment would have voluntary reduction goals and
would be much less stringent than the Lieberman-Warner approach.

Sixty votes are needed to pass major legislation in the Senate. The aide
said that probably would not happen, but they still would get a majority. "I
don't see any way how we're going to get to 60. My hope is to break 50," the
aide said, adding that up to 12 conservative Democrats might vote against the
bill knowing that the president opposes it.

President George Bush on April 16 gave a speech where he maintained he
was opposed to mandatory carbon caps and said US emissions could increase out
to 2025 and then reduce thereafter.

"I think he probably did industry somewhat of a disservice because he
probably could have cut a better deal for them this year than they're going to
get at least in the next two to four years," the aide said.

--Alexander Duncan, alexander_duncan@platts.com