WASHINGTON, DC, US. Solar photovoltaic energy from homes in the United States will show one of the largest increases in energy consumption to 2030, according to government forecasts.

Consumption from grid-connected PV systems will grow by 19.6% per year over the 25-year period from 2005, according to the revised early release of the ‘Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030' produced by the Department of Energy. The report was revised to reflect the impact of the federal ‘Energy Independence & Security Act of 2007' that was enacted in late December.

Consumption from off-grid solar PV residential systems (non-marketed output) will grow by 16.9% per year while off-grid commercial systems will grow by 8.7%. The DOE provides the data in quadrillion Btu, and all solar PV output is noted as 0.01 quad at the peak.

Consumption from grid-connected wind turbines will grow by 6.7% per year to reach 1.24 quad in 2030, while on-line solar thermal will grow by 6.4% pa to reach 0.02 quad.

Conventional hydroelectric systems grow by 0.2% and geothermal electric by 4% year, with grid-connected biomass consumption growing from 1.8% to 11.9% per year. In total, marketed renewable energy will grow by 3% a year to 2030 in the U.S., from 6.3 quad in 2005 to 13.73 quad.

For non-marketed consumption of renewable energies in the residential sector, geothermal heat pumps grow by 6.1% and solar DHW systems by 5.3%, while wind is not seen to exist. In commercial consumption, solar thermal grows by 0.5% and wind by 11.9% per year.

DOE’s Energy Information Administration does not estimate or project total consumption of non-marketed renewable energy and tracks only some technologies.

While marketed and non-marketed renewables are expected to grow by 4.4% per year to 2.45 quad from the current level of 0.67, total energy consumption in the U.S. will grow by 0.7% over that period to 118 quad. Petroleum will account for the largest consumption in 2030 at 44 quad, with natural gas at 23.4, coal at 29.9, nuclear at 9.6, hydropower at 3 and biomass at 5.5 quad.

While wind capacity is expected to reach 40 GW by 2030, the DOE forecasts shows nothing for off-shore wind.

The Annual Energy Outlook projects energy supply, demand and prices through 2030, based on DOE’s National Energy Modelling System. This revised early release includes the reference case while the full publication will be released later in April.

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